Global Courant
Andrei Karpalov has held the rank of Colonel General since 2015. He is currently a Member of Parliament, State Duma Deputy, elected on September 19, 2021, and Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee. Photo: Creative Commons
Yevgeny Prigozhin and about 5,000 of his men, now arriving in Belarus, have defied Russian President Putin by refusing to sign an agreement to operate under the Russian Defense Ministry. That is why the head of the Russian Defense Committee Andrei Kartapolov said that the Wagner troops will no longer fight in Ukraine. His statement came as Wagner staged a recruiting campaign in Russia, apparently without any resistance from the authorities.
Meanwhile, in Belarus, work is going on feverishly on the construction of a new base for the Wagner troops. That base is located near the town of Osipovichi, about 90 km southeast of the Belarusian capital.
There are a number of developments. One involves Sergey Surovikin, aka “General Armageddon,” who serves as a deputy to the head of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, and as a special adviser to Prigozhin and the Wagner group. Russian media have reported that he has been detained and is undergoing a preliminary investigation into his role in Wagner’s failed coup.
The Washington Posthowever quotes Surovikin’s daughter, speaking to a Telegraph channel, who dismisses the claim that he is being detained and describes him working in his office. (That wouldn’t explain what allegedly happened to Surovikin’s deputy; see below.)
At the same time, the Russian government is trying to replace Wagner’s leadership in the Central African Republic. They are Dmitry Syty and Vitaly Perfilev, and the head of the CAR has learned that they will be fired. There is resistance from CAR saying they are very valuable and essential to state security, but that may not change anything.
It is also unanswered “which” Wagner troops will remain in the Central African Republic. That is, will the Wagnerites abroad have to sign contracts with the Russian army, or will they remain connected with Prigozhin? There are no answers yet about how the Russian government will manage the transition, or whether the deployed troops will obey. If they do not comply, we will have another confrontation with Prigozhin that will affect Russia’s foreign policy and security operations outside of Russia.
Wagner derives much of his income from extreme corruption, starting in Africa where it launders CAR gold and diamonds. Prigozhin also pocketed billions by favoring the status of supplying the Russian military over the billions that flowed to Wagner from the state coffers to pay for his troops and operating expenses.
This probably makes Prigozhin Russia’s richest oligarch — at least so far. No one has yet said anything about Prigozhin’s bank accounts or real estate and business operations. Will these be shielded by the state?
All this leaves us with two alternative and inconsistent observations.
The first possible conclusion is that the Kremlin still views Wagner as very important and useful, allowing Prigozhin and his followers to continue to thwart the Russian Defense Ministry and continue independently, operating from Belarus.
The second, on the contrary, is that the Kremlin’s “solution” to live and let live, as far as Prigozhin is concerned, is a complete failure and that Prigozhin and Wagner reinvent themselves, mostly outside of Russia. continuation of their activities in Syria, Libya, Mali and the Central African Republic.
An airfield in Libya operated by Wagner near al Khadim was attacked by Turkish Akinci drones in the last week of June. Akinci is a twin-engine drone, the latest in the Bayraktar series.
It may be that Belarusian dictator Aleksander Lukashenko sees the Wagner base as a security force to help him protect his presidency from his regime’s opponents.
New Belarusian base for the Wagner troops. Photo: Planet Labs PBC
It is known that Poland gives military training to Belarusian dissidents, and maybe Lukashenko doesn’t trust his own army to protect his regime. However, it is risky to place your safety in the hands of a force beyond your control that could turn against you at any time.
As far as Putin’s government is concerned, which has already been humiliated by not fighting and destroying the Wagner army, the situation seems much darker. Some Russian mil bloggers, who generally supported the military and Putin, are dissatisfied how the coup attempt was ended. Some have begun to turn against Putin, denouncing the Russian military’s failure to take firm action against Wagner. This is the best barometer we currently have of the Russian mood and perhaps support for Putin, which is wavering by the day.
A purge is reportedly underway in Russia to eliminate Wagner backers in the military, including military intelligence, and within the government. It is too early to say how deep this will go, or whether Putin could risk removing his top military and intelligence leaders, especially with war raging in Ukraine.
Andrew Yudi. Photo: Creative Commons
Alexei Venediktov, a Russian journalist and co-owner of Echo of Moscow, reports that General Surovikin’s deputy, Colonel General Andrei Yudin, has been dismissed from the ranks of the Russian armed forces.
Meanwhile, Prigozhin remains defiant and free to operate, but no one knows on whose behalf other than himself.
Putin and Lukashenko’s deal with Prigozhin appears to be a total bust.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published about his substack, weapons and strategy. Global Courant republishes it with permission.
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