Global Courant 2023-05-29 22:47:32
ISTANBUL — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won re-election in a second round on Sunday after a blood-curdling first round two weeks earlier. After securing another five years, Erdogan now faces a host of domestic challenges in a deeply divided country, from a battered economy to pressure for the repatriation of Syrian refugees to the need to rebuild after a devastating earthquake.
Here’s a look at the challenges ahead.
ECONOMY: HOW LONG CAN ERDOGAN’S UNORTHODOX POLICIES BE UPHOLSTERED?
Inflation in Turkey hit a whopping 85% in October and fell to 44% last month – although independent experts think the latest figure still obscures just how serious the cost-of-living crisis is in a country where people are struggling to pay of sky-high rents and purchases. basic goods.
Critics blame the crisis on Erdogan’s policy of keeping interest rates low to promote growth. Economists generally recommend raising interest rates to combat inflation.
Despite a faltering economy, Erdogan won the election, in part by mitigating the effects of inflation with government spending that experts say is unsustainable, including minimum wage and pension increases.
“The Turkish economy has been partying for a long time and well beyond its means. And I think in the post-election period, we will pay for the feast we consumed,” said Selva Demiralp, an economics professor at Koc University in Istanbul.
Going forward, the government will have to decide whether to stick with low rates as Erdogan has promised, implement gradual increases or combine small increases with other measures. Everything, according to Demiralp, will bring an “inevitable slowdown” of the Turkish economy and higher unemployment rates, but the question is whether it is a controlled slowdown or a sudden stop.
The Turkish lira fell against the dollar on Monday, although stocks rose.
EARTHQUAKE: ERDOGAN MADE HARD TO REBUILD – BUT AT WHAT COST?
Erdogan’s landslide victory in the provinces hardest hit by the February 6 earthquake that killed some 50,000 people came despite criticism that the government’s response was slow and ineffective.
Voters in nine of the eleven quake-hit provinces supported the president, including particularly hard-hit Hatay. In his victory speech, Erdogan said reconstruction would be a top priority for his government.
The World Bank estimates the quake caused $34.2 billion in “direct damage” — an amount equivalent to 4% of Turkey’s gross domestic product in 2021. Recovery and reconstruction costs could amount to double, it said.
Erdogan’s two decades in power were marked by a huge construction boom. Despite criticism that lax enforcement of building codes contributed to the quake’s lethality, many of his supporters believe he has shown he can rebuild. But geologists and engineers have warned that a rapid construction campaign could also pose risks.
SYRIANS: ERDOGAN UNDER PRESSURE TO SEND REFUGEES HOME
Erdogan is well aware that sentiment has soured about the 3.4 million Syrians who fled domestic violence for Turkey, especially as the country grapples with an economic downturn.
In his victory speech, Erdogan said some 600,000 refugees had already voluntarily returned to Syria, where his government is creating so-called “safe zones” in the northern areas it controls. An additional million would follow thanks to a joint resettlement program with Qatar, Erdogan said, without giving details.
But Human Rights Watch’s Emma Sinclair-Webb said Syria is still not safe for many refugees, while the polarizing discourse in Turkey creates a dangerous situation for them as well.
RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS: ERDOGAN SIGNALS CRACKDOWN CONTINUES
Erdogan’s presidency has been marked by a crackdown on freedom of expression and growing hostility towards minority groups: the mainstream media is pro-government, internet censorship is widespread, new social media laws can restrict expression online and he regularly targets members of the LGBTQ community and ethnic Kurds.
In the aftermath of the failed 2016 coup attempt that Turkey blames on a US-based Islamist cleric, the government used broad terror laws to jail those associated with the cleric, pro-Kurdish politicians and members of civil society.
Sinclair-Webb, the human rights activist, said Erdogan’s victory speech was a “prelude to things to come” as he targeted jailed pro-Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas as crowds chanted slogans for the death penalty.
He similarly used another victory speech to stir up anti-LGBTQ sentiment.
Erdogan once called the mistreatment of gays “inhumane,” but now refers to members of the LGBTQ community as “deviants.” Since 2015, his government has banned pride parades as officials increased the use of discriminatory language as they tried to bolster their conservative base.
Erdogan’s government also withdrew Turkey from a historic European treaty protecting women from domestic violence, bowing to conservative groups who claimed the treaty promoted homosexuality.
Anti-gay rhetoric only escalated during Erdogan’s campaign.
“Mentioning it again at the earliest opportunity in the victory balcony speech is a chilling reminder to us of how he really endangers LGBT people,” said Sinclair-Webb, the human rights activist.
Turkey’s oldest LGBTQ association, Kaos GL, said Erdogan’s victory would not silence them.
“Although they promise to shut us down, we came out once and we’re not going back in,” the organization and others said in a statement.
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Associated Press writer Suzan Fraser contributed from Ankara, Turkey.
