Global Courant
China is facing new allegations that the Covid-19 outbreak was caused by a leak from one of their labs — and that this research is related to biological warfare.
It is a ask asked virtually since the pandemic was identified: Was Covid-19 a natural outbreak or a disease that escaped from a Chinese lab in Wuhan?
A recent report from the Sunday Times claims the paper has seen evidence that China was developing dangerous coronaviruses in conjunction with the Chinese military for the purported purposes of biological warfare. This research program was the likely source of the pandemic, the report says.
The allegations
The new allegations are based on “hundreds of documents”, including confidential reports and memos, emails and scientific papers, as well as interviews with United States Department of State officials who have investigated the source of the pandemic.
The report also claims that researchers from the Wuhan lab were taken to hospital in November 2019 with “Covid-like symptoms”.
The cause of Covid-19 has been investigated before, but these studies are not conclusive. The World Health Organization (WHO) performed one inspection in January 2021.
While their researchers couldn’t clearly find a natural source for the disease, they also stated that suggestions that Covid-19 leaked from a lab were “highly unlikely”. Still, the WHO said China’s lack of transparency made research difficult and that this was one reason why they could say neither.
China still insists there is no evidence that Covid-19 came from a lab.
China denies that Covid leaked from a Chinese laboratory. Image: Screengrab/HBO
The really interesting thing about the new report is not only that it says it has new evidence, but that it claims that the data shows that Chinese scientists were researching coronaviruses in relation to biological warfare. Biowarfare is the deliberate use of disease and biological agents to cause harm.
The article quotes an American researcher as claiming that Chinese scientists were working on a vaccine. The claim is that the Chinese military wanted a vaccine to inoculate their own population if they ever wanted to use the virus for biological warfare. With a vaccine, the report says, China could have “a weapon to shift the balance of power in the world.”
Claims have been made that China was developing biological weapons Danny Shoham, a former Israeli intelligence officer and biowarfare expert. Others steadfast rejects this accusation. a Report of the US National Intelligence Council said of Covid-19: “We judge that the virus was not developed as a biological weapon.”
Next steps – more data?
So, what might the rest of the world do about these new accusations – if anything?
The dispute over whether Covid-19 was created by Chinese scientists is still ongoing. States may feel they need more information.
We have already seen something similar happen in Syria related to chemical weapons, which are said to have been used there during the conflict. Despite former US President Barack Obama calling the use of chemical weapons a “Red lineWashington said it would not act until it felt the evidence of chemical warfare was irrefutable.
Like chemical weapons, bioweapons are terrible forms of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). But precisely because this armament is so terrible, states must be careful. Any claim that a country has violated weapons of mass destruction rules will be controversial. Politicians will want and must be sure of the facts.
One option is further investigation, possibly via an international organization such as the WHO. But this was going to be a difficult investigation for a number of reasons.
An investigation would not only be difficult because of China must still be completely transparent. This issue is also problematic because of double use. Biological research does not necessarily mean biological warfare.
Research is also done for good purposes – such as medical advancements. And those two kinds of research look pretty much the same. So even if China was developing a vaccine, was it for public health reasons or to create defenses against biowarfare attacks by others?
It’s also easy to hide biowarfare research. Science experiments usually take place in small and secret facilitiesusing equipment that can be dismantled quickly if it is suspected that inspectors are about to knock.
Options for action
What if the international community wants to take further action? States could make an official complaint that China may have violated the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).
The treaty is a legally binding treaty that prohibits the possession and use of biological weapons. The US has said that before “does not have enough information” to determine whether China has complied with the BWC.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning responds to US allegations that Covid-19 was developed in a Chinese lab at a press conference in Beijing, February 2023. Photo: EPA-EFE via The Conversation / Mark R Cristino
Complaints can be submitted via the United Nations. In 2022 the UN Security Council rejects such complaint by Russia against Ukraine. States could invoke the International Court of Justice, but there could be legal issues with it – especially considering that not all states are members of the BWC. States can too call a special meeting from the BWC signatories to discuss a possible violation of the treaty.
A complaint would not necessarily do much. The BWC has been widely criticized for not having a verification mechanism, so it has little direct authority over what states do. However, filing a complaint would at least raise the issue at an international level.
Another possible option is the UN Secretary-General’s Mechanism for Investigating Alleged Uses of Chemical and Biological Weapons. Still, this option is shaky because it allows research into the actual use of biological weapons.
But even if Covid-19 were shown to be a lab leak, it would almost certainly have been an accident and not clearly a case of biological warfare.
Ultimately, of course, another option for the international community is that they do nothing. The Sunday Times article claims to present new data, but it is not beyond dispute. And even just raising the issue of biological warfare with China would be diplomatically contentious and ruffle many political feathers.
As such, the international community will not want to continue the dispute over Covid-19 unless they have definitive evidence of a Chinese biowarfare program. But given the nature of biological research, we may never be able to get that certainty.
Michelle Bentley is a lecturer in international relations, Royal Holloway University of London
This article has been republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Disclosure Statement: Michelle Bentley does not work for, consult with, own stock in, or receive funding from any company or organization that could benefit from this article, and has not disclosed relevant affiliations outside of their academic tenure.
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