Global Courant
Islamabad, Pakistan: Iran’s airstrikes Tuesday evening on Pakistani territory in southwestern Balochistan province threaten to draw Islamabad into a wider regional conflict, analysts warn, less than a month before national elections.
The bombings, which Iran says targeted an armed group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice), resulted in the deaths of at least two children while wounding three more, according to a statement from Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry.
The ministry said it “strongly condemned” the incident – which took place near the border town of Panjgur – calling it a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty, and warned Iran of “serious consequences”.
But what could those consequences be?
Increased bilateral involvement
The attacks coincided with increased interactions between Pakistani and Iranian officials, both civilian and military, in recent days.
Hours before Iranian aircraft dropped bombs on Balochistan, Pakistan’s interim Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar had met Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos in Switzerland.
Pakistan’s interim Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani met with Iran’s Special Representative for Afghanistan Affairs Hassan Kazmi Qomi in Islamabad earlier this week, where the two discussed the need for “enhanced coordination for regional stability.”
Minister of Foreign Affairs @JalilJilani today received Iran’s Special Representative for Afghanistan Affairs, Hassan Kazmi Qomi. FM underscored Pakistan’s commitment to a peaceful and stable Afghanistan and emphasized the need for improved coordination for regional stability. He also… pic.twitter.com/wyT6DcDEk7
— Spokesperson MoFA (@ForeignOfficePk) January 15, 2024
The two countries also took part in a one-day naval exercise in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz on January 16.
Despite these recent agreements and a 2022 decision between the two countries to form a joint working group on border management, small-scale clashes at the border have remained a constant phenomenon.
Iranian media reported in December that the country’s interior minister had issued a warning to Pakistan to stop the Jaish al-Adl group from launching attacks in Iran, following the deaths of 11 police officers in Iran’s southeastern city of Rask Sistan-Baluchestan province, which borders Iran. Pakistan.
In May 2023, six Iranian border guards were killed in clashes near the Pakistani border, prompting Iran to issue a warning and ask Pakistan to “do more.” A month earlier, four Pakistani soldiers were also killed in cross-border shelling in Pakistan’s Balochistan province.
The countries share an approximately 900 km long border in southwestern Pakistan and southeastern Iran. They have accused each other of protecting armed groups.
Pakistan has been facing an insurgency by Baloch rebels demanding secession for decades.
On the other hand, Iran has demanded that Pakistan act against Jaish al-Adl, an armed Sunni group that has targeted Iranian officials and reportedly demanded better living conditions for people in Sistan-Baluchestan, the country’s most impoverished province .
Iran’s attack on Pakistani territory, which comes at a time when Israel’s war against Gaza threatens to spill over into the region, deserves a mature response, said Mosharraf Zaidi of the Islamabad-based think tank Tabadlab. Iran has also recently launched attacks in Syria and Iraq.
“Pakistan’s response so far is exactly what it should be. The Iranians are trying to provoke an unnecessary reaction,” he told Al Jazeera. “The real risk at this point is the broader danger that Pakistan will be drawn into a conflict in which it is not a key player and in which it will continue to be distracted.”
A military response?
On the other hand, Kamran Bokhari, senior director of the Washington DC-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, said Pakistan could respond with its own attacks – although that could mean a potentially protracted conflict for Pakistan.
“After Afghanistan in the West and India in the East, this could trigger a conflict on a third border. I’m not so sure Islamabad is ready for that,” he told Al Jazeera.
Iran fired missiles at targets in Syria, Iran and Pakistan this week (File: Iranian Army/WANA via Reuters)
Pakistan has summoned Iran’s top diplomat in Islamabad to register his protest. Ihsanullah Tipu, a security analyst, said he expected Pakistan to work on a diplomatic response and look at possible options for a military response.
“If Pakistan wants to hit back, the justification and the pressure are both there. It could seek a public apology from top Iranian officials through diplomatic channels, but if those efforts fail, Pakistan could also consider a military response to the Iranian attack,” Tipu told Al Jazeera.
Tipu, director of The Khorasan Diary, a news and research portal that tracks and analyzes security issues in the region, expressed surprise at Iran’s escalation despite the ongoing security conflict in the Middle East.
He said Iranian actions would have a long-lasting effect and implications on bilateral relations, both in terms of politics and security.
“By carrying out attacks in Pakistan, it has given Pakistan a kind of justification to follow the same path in response to attacking the sanctuaries of anti-Pakistani militant groups, which Pakistan believes are based in Iran or even elsewhere,” Tipu added to it.
Bokhari said the Iranian airstrikes could push Pakistan to seek “greater alignment” with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
“Each of these countries has an interest in ensuring that Iran is kept under control. The attack on Pakistan is just one element of a broader Iranian confrontation with the United States,” he said.
“Tehran sees Pakistan as a pawn in this risky relationship with Washington.”
