Global Courant
Ukraine has stepped up its assault on the Vremivka tactical beachhead, focusing on the Marakrivka settlement.
Ukraine has significantly expanded its artillery, bringing in the 4th Artillery Brigade, the Jaeger Brigade, the 82nd Air Assault Brigade (withdrawn from strategic reserves), and the 3rd Tank Brigade. It has moved a brigade from Kherson to join the force on the bridgehead. Other brigades are also involved in this operation, making it Ukraine’s heaviest attack to date.
The map below (of the Military Channel) shows where the biggest fighting takes place in this area. The Russians have deployed only a fraction of their forces and currently outnumber the many Ukrainian brigades in this operation.
The Russians tried to launch a counter-offensive in the gray box on the map, but they could only slow down the Ukrainians, not drive them back.
The weather in the area is clearing up, making air operations (helicopters, drones and aircraft) more effective. The past few days there has been a lot of rain and fog.
This battle is on. The Russians lost a general, Major General Sergei Goryachev, 52, Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, who died as a result of a missile strike; most likely his command post was hit by a HIMARS. It is likely that he was targeted by American and British spy planes operating off the coast. The US runs the Global Hawk RQ-4 drone, a very capable intelligence drone, and the British brought the much larger manned Rivet Joint RC-135 spycraft.
There is no word on casualties or equipment destroyed on either side.
The Ukrainians are still a long way from Russia’s first line of defense, which is heavily fortified. The Russian strategy formulated so far appears to be costly to the Ukrainians, slowly breaking down their forces and trying to form cauldrons where the Russians can systematically destroy Ukrainian armor.
The Ukrainians say the Russians are running out of ammunition, but that may be more due to the few days of bad weather than anything else. Anyway, Russia controls the roads all the way back to Russia itself, so it can fortify at will.
Other developments
Russia has carried out heavy airstrikes, including Kiev. Some attacks targeted command centers, munitions depots, and petroleum, oil, and lubricant sites.
The Ukrainians continue to claim that significant progress has been made in attacking the Bakhmut flanks, although almost every report says that Ukrainian troops were driven off and suffered losses. This is indicative of the need for Kiev to report only domestic successes, even if these statements are divorced from reality. The intensification of Kiev’s home front propaganda is something you would expect in the context of a major offensive operation.
The Russians captured an apparently undamaged Leopard tank left by Ukrainian operators with the engine still running. The model of the tank (A4 or A6) has not yet been disclosed by the Russians, but this is an important war trophy and a system that Russian experts will use. The Russians also captured a Bradley fighting vehicle that was not damaged. There is a short video of a soldier capturing this equipment, but it is vague and does not reveal the actual time and place.
There is a terrible situation on the Ukrainian side that deserves condemnation. Four Ukrainian soldiers went to pick up a comrade who had been wounded on the battlefield. They were not authorized to do so and apparently left the ranks to save their friend. The Ukrainians sent in a Bradley and mowed down the four soldiers and their wounded colleague. The entire episode was captured on video by a Russian drone.
Weapons
The Russian attack and surveillance helicopter Ka-52 appears to have been successful in its operations during the offensive. It is equipped with the 9m127-1 Vikhr-1 missile which works like the American Hellfire and the Israeli Spike. Its main feature is that it is much faster than Western missiles, making it difficult to shoot down.
The Ka-52s would be equipped with directional infrared countermeasure systems for self-protection against missiles. The US has DIRCM systems on some aircraft, including AH-64E Apache and UH-60 helicopters. The Russian system is called Vitebsk L-370. Field reports say it has been very successful against Ukrainian attacks.
The US has announced that it will release depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine. The US produces 120mm DU tank shells for armor penetration. The Ukrainians can fire them from the Leopard tanks they received and in the future from Abrams tanks that have not yet been sent to Ukraine. The ammunition cannot be used on the British Challenger tank as it uses a rifled gun barrel.
There is a rumor in NATO that Poland wants to send land and air forces to Ukraine. Poland has received some support from NATO, but warnings about the spread of the war to Europe are a deterrent.
NATO started a huge air exercise called Air Defender on Monday 12 June. The exercise will run until June 23. The air exercise is the largest in NATO history.
Politics
In a Moscow video, Putin stood with Defense Minister Shoigu for photos, but they seemed far apart: In one frame, Putin turns away from Shoigu. Not sure if this means anything.
Russia has arrested a subversive group allegedly planning sabotage attacks to damage railways in the Russian regions of Kursk and Belgorod, bordering Ukraine.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This situation report was originally published about his substack, weapons and strategy. Global Courant republishes it with permission.
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