Global Courant
SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart Brand, in the middle of an actors strike when thespians can’t promote, is trumping at the box office with Paramount and Spin Master’s $30M sequel, Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie, the top dog with an expected $22.5M opening and A CinemaScore, which is better than the first pic’s A-.
On the downside, four major studio entries aren’t enough to push the domestic market past $100M with all pics totaling $86M. While that’s up 34% from last year’s $64M when Smile bowed, it’s off 9% from pre-pandemic 2019. We can also blame the rain in NYC which shuttered around 20 cinemas including powerhouse AMC’s big venues, Lincoln Square, Empire and 84th Street .
There was a yearning need for families to head to the movies, and animated pics in late September have always found a place at cinemas, ie Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, Abominable etc. The flooding in NYC isn’t weathering Paw Patrol 2 as that pic is a big hit in the Mid-West where 15% of all ticket sales are coming from versus the norm of 12.7%. Great scores will keep this movie unleashed throughout matinees this weekend with 83% on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak and a 68% recommend and a 91% from kids under 12. Mostly women at 65% shown with close to half of the audience between 13- 24 and the largest quad a tie between 13-17 and 18-24 at 24% each. Diversity demos were 34% Caucasian, 32% Hispanic and Latino, 15% Black and 19% Asian/other.
Lionsgate/Twisted Pictures’ Saw X led all movies on Friday with $8M (which includes $2M) previews for what’s poised to be an $18.6M opening — higher than Jigsaw and definitely higher than franchise worst Spiral but below the $20M+ tracking was eyeing . Still, with all the TV spot and social marketing that Paramount had with Paw Patrol 2 and Disney/20th on The Creator, Saw X isn’t too shabby considering its $13M production cost. CinemaScore is a B, which is a grade most of the installments in the horror sequel have received, the highest going to 2005’s Saw II which landed a B+.
New Regency/20th Century Studios/Disney’s The Creator posted $5.6M on its opening day with an outlook of $14M. The movie gets a B+ which is higher than Ad Astra (B-), higher than Arrival (B) but just below Gravity (A-). It’s unfortunate that an original sci-fi movie, which the marketplace needs more than for franchise starters, and is commendable here for studios to continue to take risks on, is underperforming in the domestic marketplace. I hear that overseas is looking better for Creator with an outlook of $17M-$20M, which in likes-for-likes, is on par with Arrival; that movie ended its run at $102.8M abroad.
Pete Davidson and Paul Dano in ‘Dumb Money’
Sony Pictures
A coastal play movie like Black Bear and Sony’s Dumb Money is getting hurt by the underwater NYC marketplace and the actors strike with $1.3M yesterday at 2,837 locations and $4M for the weekend with a running total in its third week of $7.8M. Black Bear financed this movie for $30M and made the Game Stop meme movie a reality for the big screen. Sony bought US, Latin America, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, South Africa, India and selected Asian markets. Again, no late night talk show with this pic’s movie stars of Seth Rogen, Pete Davidson and Shailene Woodley hurts greatly.
Fathom has the faith-based title, The Blind, from filmmaker Andrew Hyatt which has made $2.1M through Thursday and Friday at 1,714. The weekend outlook is $3.8M. The movie is about Phil Robertson of Duck Dynasty and how he fell in love, started a family and how his demons threatened their lives apart. The audience who showed up, loved it at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes. Pic was strong in the Bible Belt meaning South and South Central where 65% of its gross is coming from versus 34%. The Cinemark Tinseltown 18 in West Monroe, LA is the best in the nation to date with over $11k.
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FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Paramount/Spin Master’s PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie didn’t have previews today, but based on presales and upcoming matinees, the tike sequel is eyeing a $6.5 million Friday and a $22 million opening at 3,644 theaters.
That’s fantastic and underscores the massive power of the kiddie brand after Paramount took the first movie out in theaters and Paramount+ day-and-date back in 2021, scoring a $13.1M opening and $40.1M result. To nearly double the amount of money in a sequel’s opening is commendable here.
Lionsgate’s decision to take its Saw franchise back to its original name in Saw X is proving worthy. As of right now the movie looks to do $7.6M today, including $2M previews, and $17.5M for the weekend at 3,262 theaters. That’s slightly more than Jigsaw but still under the bullish $20M+ tracking cap. We’ll see if there’s momentum as the weekend continues.
In Twisted Pictures’ current installment, John Kramer (Tobin Bell) is back, and it’s the untold chapter of Jigsaw’s final games. Set between the events of Saw I and II, a sick and desperate John travels to Mexico for a risky and experimental medical procedure in hopes of a miracle cure for his cancer – only to discover the entire operation is a scam to defraud the most vulnerable. The infamous serial killer returns to his work, turning the tables on the con artists in his signature visceral way through devious, deranged and ingenious traps. The movie has the best reviews of any Saw pic at 86% fresh.
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At this time, New Regency/20th Century Studios’ The Creator is coming up short with $15M-$16M after a Friday that’s at $6M, including previews. The Gareth Edwards-directed title is booked in 3,680 theaters. Oy, on this $80M-budgeted spectacle.
Sony’s wide expansion of Dumb Money from 616 theaters to 2,837 is only seeing $1M today and around $3M for the weekend, way outside the top five pics. Clearly, in the cases of The Creator and Dumb Money, these movies truly require their casts and late-night talk shows to fire up a spirit in a 360-degree campaign. Movies such as PAW Patrol and Saw X aren’t contingent on their casts spurring foot traffic.
Fourth place belongs to the fourth weekend of New Line’s The Nun 2 with around $5M at 2,871 theaters, off 42%, and a running total of $77M. 20th/Disney’s A Haunting in Venice is fifth with $4M, -37%, for a running total of $31.8M in weekend three.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Hopefully three wide releases can wake up what’s been a relatively sleepy time at the box office, ratcheted down by the SAG-AFTRA strike. With New Regency/20th Century Studios/Disney’s original Gareth Edwards sci-fi movie The Creator, Paramount and Spin Master’s PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie and Lionsgate’s Saw X, the top three movies look to make around $45M.
All three of them are vying for No. 1 with a take in the high-ten millions, but it’s likely a two-way race between PAW Patrol 2 and The Creator since both pics have had the loudest marketing campaigns and Lionsgate usually executes its smaller-budgeted movies on the cheap.
Wait, there’s four wide releases this weekend: Sony’s Dumb Money is expanding but only expected to do in the single digits.
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The Creator and Saw X held previews Thursday night, while PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie skipped because it’s matinee draw on the weekend while school is in session. Coming off Wednesday night premium screenings and Thursday night shows that started at 6 pm, The Creator earned $1.6M, while Saw X saw $2M. The horror sequel saw a big turnout among Latino and Hispanic moviegoers at 41%.
That’s a slow start for The Creator considering that figure includes Wednesday shows for the $80M production completely financed by New Regency. The sci-fi pic has all the blasters of premium ticket sales in Imax, ScreenX, 4D, etc., amid an overall theater count of 3,680.
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Saw X’s preview figure is ahead of that of the previous two Saw titles: Spiral did $750K in 2021 and Jigsaw made $1.6M in 20167. Jigsaw’s Thursday repped 23% of its Friday total, which turned into a $16.6M opening and a $38M domestic final.
What remains is to be seen how both older-guy movies were frontloaded with fans Thursday night. The plus for PAW Patrol 2 is that it’s the first family animated movie since Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem in early August, but it’s sequel that appeals to kids in diapers and preschool.
In Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak exits, Saw X gets a 78% grade, Creator is 78%, and Dumb Money is 87%. Creator leaned more guy Thursday night than Saw X, 72% to 61%.
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Tracking had Saw X way ahead at $20M since it’s the first franchise pic with Saw in the title since 2010’s Saw 3D. The previous movie, Spiral, bottomed out to a franchise-low opening of $8.75M and a $23.2M domestic take. Lionsgate lifted the review embargo late in the game on Saw X, and it turned out that the sequel at 85% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes is the best critical rating for the franchise ever. The $13M production plays at 3,262 theaters, the widest ever for a Saw movie. Through nine movies to date, the franchise has grossed more than $1 billion worldwide and is one of the longest running horror franchises in cinema history.
RELATED: ‘Saw X’ Trailer: Jigsaw Is Back And There’s Still A Lot Of Work That Needs To Be Done
Creator’s previews are being compared to last year’s The Woman King ($1.7M, $19.1M opening in ), 2019’s Gemini Man ($1.6M, $20.6M opening), 2016’s Arrival ($1.5M, $24.1M opening) and 2019’s Ad Astra ($1.5M , $19M opening). Critics aren’t entirely over the moon about Creator at 68% fresh next to the Brad Pitt-led 83% certified fresh Ad Astra and Amy Adams-Jeremy Renner led Arrival, which was 94% certified fresh on RT.
