Global Courant
One of the main highlights of Japan’s three national security documents released on Dec. 16, 2022 — the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Construction Plan (DBP) — is the commitment to increase defense spending.
The 2022 DBP showed that the Japanese government will spend about 43 trillion yen ($310 billion) between 2023 and 2027 to finance defense capability building. Japan’s Ministry of Defense (JMOD) budget will increase annually to 8.9 trillion yen ($64.1 billion) by 2027.
The Defense budget 2023 demonstrates Tokyo’s determination to meet its five-year spending commitments under the DBP. The total budget of more than 6.6 trillion yen ($47.5 billion) is a 27.5% increase from 2022 and the largest defense budget in Japan’s post-war history.
But the target of “about 2% of GDP” that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida discussed his press conference on 16 December 2022 following the publication of these three documents somewhat misleading. The 2% not only includes the JMOD budget, but also other national security-related expenditures such as the Japan Coast Guard budget and national infrastructure investments.
Still, the JMOD’s 2023-2027 budget plan is 60% higher than the 2018-2022 spending plan. As a country that historically spent about 1% of its GDP on defense and resisted calls to spend more, Tokyo’s commitment to such a significant increase marks a departure from the past.
Highlights from these new documents, such as Japan’s acquisition of counterattack capabilities and a significant increase in defense spending — continue to make headlines. But funding remains a thorny issue. The governing coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito has been working on fiscal measures that will enable Tokyo to meet its defense spending commitments.
In December 2022, based on the approved sketch of the LDP-Komeitotook the Ministry of Finance in its seven points 2023 tax review proposal. These are incremental increases in corporate, income and tobacco taxes proposed after 2024.
The Japanese Maritime Self Defense Forces helicopter carrier Izumo sets sail from Yokosuka Base. Photo: AFP
The LDP-led ruling coalition introduced the Defense Fiscal Resource Bill to the National Diet in February 2023. The bill provides the fiscal framework through which the Japanese government will fund the increase in defense spending – which is essentially a mixed package of the creation of the Defense Enhancement Fund and the incremental phased increase in corporate, personal income and tobacco taxes.
The bill passed the House of Representatives on 23 May 2023 and following the approval became law by the House of Representatives on June 16, 2023.
The opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party, vowed to block the bill. But the large majority enjoyed by the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition in both houses of the Diet, with the additional support of the conservative Japan Innovation Party, paved the way for the bill to be passed.
Although Kishida won the legislative battle, it remains highly questionable whether the public will support it.
Frankly, the majority of the Japanese public supported an increase in defense spending. Polls from media outlets across the ideological spectrum in 2022 consistently show that the public is primarily in favor of an increase in defense spending.
Conducted three separate media polls April, October And December 2022 show that more than half of the respondents favored an increase in defense spending. Even one May 2022 A poll by the Mainichi Shimbun, known for its criticism of expansionary defense policies, shows 76% of public support for such an increase.
But the public resisted funding this increase in defense spending through higher taxes. Public opposition to tax increases began to emerge in late 2022. Two polls in November And December 2022 showed that more than 60% of the public disapproves of such a tax increase.
This public backlash against the defense tax increase will continue into 2023. Polls are rolling in January And February 2023 showed that 71% and 64% of respondents opposed tax increases to fund the defense budget increase.
a May 7, 2023 Polls showed that nearly 90% of respondents are concerned about a military crisis in Taiwan and more than 60% support Japan in acquiring counterattacks. But 80% oppose financing defense spending through tax increases.
In addition, Kishida may have missed the opportunity to garner public support for the defense tax increase by taking the matter to the public. This was shown by two separate polls in January 2023 78% And 63% of respondents believed that Kishida should dissolve the House of Commons and call an election before passing the tax hike.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida rides a Japan Ground Self-Defense Force Type 10 tank during a review at JGSDF Camp Asaka in Tokyo on Nov. 27, 2021. Photo: JiJi
But with his approval rating just recovering 45% after a successful G7 summit in Hiroshima, Kishida decided not to dissolve the House of Commons, at least not for the foreseeable future.
The Japanese public already seems to be reacting negatively to Kishida’s choice. The June 17–18 poll conducted by the Kyodo news shows Kishida’s approval rating dropped by more than 6 points to 40.8%.
While the defense-related tax hike wasn’t the only reason for the drop in his approval rating, it indicates that Kishida’s tactic of inciting widespread public resistance with majority power could work in the short term, but the sustainability of the Japanese government could undermine. increased defense spending over time.
Yuki Tatsumi is Senior Fellow, Co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the Japan Program at the Stimson Center, Washington, DC.
This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and has been republished under a Creative Commons license.
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