Global Courant 2023-04-29 19:17:51
The biggest week of this earnings season showed us that things aren’t as bad as many feared. Another barrage of results in the coming week will test that assumption. So far, about half of the S & P 500 has reported quarterly earnings, with 74% of those companies exceeding Wall Street expectations for sales and 79% beating on earnings. However, S & P 500 blended earnings — which combine actual results and estimates from companies that have yet to report — are down nearly 4% from last quarter. That would mark the second straight quarter of declines, but the magnitude is in line with a so-called soft landing for the economy. The week ahead of earnings, including several more Club names, should tell us more. The results are always important, but it’s the guidance and management commentary we will really hone in on to better understand the path ahead. As we saw with Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday, the reported results can and will take a back seat to commentary about what management is seeing in the here and now. In Amazon’s case, a solid first quarter for its AWS cloud business was overshadowed by management seeing a material slowdown in April. Several key macroeconomic updates are also on tap in the coming days, including the ISM manufacturing report and factory orders, which together provide insight into the state of U.S. manufacturers, responsible for roughly 11% of domestic activity. We’ll also get the ADP employment report on Wednesday and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which will show us the employment picture, and in turn provide insight into the health of the consumer and where inflation is headed. Consider that private consumption is responsible for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP and the ability to consume is tied directly to one’s employment status. As a result, both reports will likely move the market. But Friday’s jobs report is the more important of the two, because it shows not only job additions for April but also wage inflation. Wage inflation tells us consumers’ ability to absorb higher prices and therefore sustain inflation. For this reason, we want to see wage inflation moderate. In between the two employment reports is the Federal Reserve’s May meeting on Wednesday, when it is largely expected (88% probability) that the central bank will raise rates by another 25 basis points. With so many market-moving parts, expect some volatility next week. Some investors act on the news and ask questions later. It can be frustrating or even uncomfortable to be invested at times like this, but it’s important to remember that these kinds of weeks are also when many great opportunities arise. We will stay focused on the underlying business fundamentals and look to take advantage of any dislocations in the market. In the portfolio, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Starbucks (SBUX) and Ford (F) report Tuesday after the closing bell; Estee Lauder (EL) and Emerson Electric (EMR) report Wednesday before the bell; Qualcomm (QCOM) reports Wednesday after the bell; Bausch Health (BHC) reports Thursday before the opening bell; Apple (AAPL) and Coterra Energy (CTRA) report Thursday after the closing bell. Here are some other earnings reports and economic numbers to watch in the week ahead: Monday, May 1 Before the bell: WEC Energy Group (WEC), CNA Financial Corp. (CNA), Global Payments, (GPN), Franklin Resources (BEN), onsemi (ON), KBR Inc (KBR), Affiliated Managers Group (AMG), Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH), Park Hotels & Resorts (PK), SoFi Technologies, (SOFI) After the bell: Stryker Corp. (SYK), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI), Community Health Systems, (CYH), Everest Re Group Ltd. (RE), CF Industries Holdings, (CF), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Avis Budget Group, (CAR), Diamondback Energy, (FANG), CVR Energy, (CVI), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Sonoco (SON), Ryerson (RYI), Sprouts Farmers Market, (SFM), Amkor Technology, (AMKR), Hologic, (HOLX), FMC Corporation (FMC), Leggett & Platt, (LEG), Logitech International S.A. (LOGI), Arista Networks, (ANET), Transocean Ltd. (RIG), Invitation Homes (INVH) 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI Tuesday, May 2 Before the bell: AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC), BP p.l.c (BP), Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC), Pfizer, (PFE), SYSCO Corp. (SYY), Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD), Cheniere Energy, (LNG), Cummins, (CMI), Sunoco, (SUN), Eaton Corp. (ETN), Expeditors International of Washington, (EXPD), Marriott International (MAR), Illinois Tool Works, (ITW), Leidos Holdings (LDOS), Cheniere Energy Partners LP (CQP), DuPont (DD), Ecolab (ECL), AGCO Corporation (AGCO), Insight Enterprises, (NSIT), Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP), MPLX LP (MPLX), Public Service Enterprise Group, (PEG), Graphic Packaging International Corp. (GPK), T. Rowe Price Group, (TROW), AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER), Thomson Reuters Corporation (TRI), Zimmer Biomet Holdings, (ZBH), Crestwood Equity Partners Lp (CEQP), ADT Corporation (ADT), Broadridge Financial Solutions, (BR), Restaurant Brands International (QSR), Zebra Technologies Corp. (ZBRA), Gartner, (IT), Colliers International Group (CIGI), IDEXX Laboratories, (IDXX), Incyte Corp. (INCY) After the bell: Energy Transfer LP (ETP), Prudential Financial, (PRU), Progressive Corp. (PGR), Uber Technologies, (UBER), ONEOK (OKE), Murphy USA (MUSA), Lumen Technologies (LUMN), Yum China Holdings, (YUMC), Assurant (AIZ), Caesars Entertainment, (CZR), Clorox Co. (CLX), Camping World Holdings, (CWH), American Financial Group, (AFG), Voya Financial, (VOYA), Supermicro (SMCI), Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (HLF), Simon Property Group, (SPG), Western Union Company (WU), eXp World Holdings, (EXPI), Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK), iHeartMedia, (IHRT), Match Group, (MTCH) 10:00 a.m. ET: Factory Orders 10:00 a.m. ET: JOLTS Job Openings Wednesday, May 3 Before the bell: CVS Health (CVS), Phillips 66 (PSX), Bunge Ltd. (BG), Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), CDW Corp. (CDW), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Exelon Corp. (EXC), Adient plc (ADNT), Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (BIP), Trane Technologies plc (TT), Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD), Fortis (FTS), Ingredion Incorporated (INGR), NiSource (NI), Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG), HanesBrands (HBI), Yum! Brands, (YUM), LouisianaPacific Corp. (LPX), Avient Corporation (AVNT), Sinclair Broadcast Group, (SBGI), Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, (SPR), Garmin Ltd. (GRMN), Clean Harbors, (CLH), Generac Holdings (GNRC), Trimble (TRMB), Brinker International, (EAT), DENTSPLY SIRONA (XRAY), Parsons Corporation (PSN), Bausch + Lomb Corporation (BLCO), Horizon Therapeutics plc (HZNP), Janus Henderson Group plc (JHG), Belden, (BDC), Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR) After the bell: MetLife (MET), Allstate Corp. (ALL), Avnet, (AVT), Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH), Corteva, (CTVA), Zillow Group, (ZG), AXA Equitable Holdings, (EQH), Mosaic Co. (MOS), Eversource Energy (ES), FNF Group (FNF), Williams Companies, (WMB), Altice USA, (ATUS), MercadoLibre (MELI), Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO), Equinix, (EQIX), Resideo Technologies, (REZI), Ingersoll-Rand Co. (IR), Globe Life (GL), Qorvo, (QRVO), Albemarle Corp. (ALB), Host Hotels & Resorts (HST), Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC), Public Storage, (PSA), Vista Outdoor (VSTO), Realty Income Corp. (O), FleetCor Technologies, (FLT), SolarEdge (SEDG), Sunrun (RUN) 8:15 a.m. ET: ADP Employment 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Services PMI 2:00 p.m. ET: FOMC Meeting Thursday, May 4 Before the bell: Shell plc (SHEL), Cardinal Health, (CAH), ArcelorMittal (MT), ConocoPhillips (COP), Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), Arrow Electronics, (ARW), NRG Energy, (NRG), HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO), Paramount Global (PARA), Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO), Moderna, (MRNA), PG & E Corp. (PCG), Constellation Energy Group, (CEG), WestRock Company (WRK), Becton, Dickinson & Co. (BDX), WESCO International (WCC), Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL), BCE, (BCE), American Electric Power Company, (AEP), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Aptiv PLC (APTV), Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH), Westlake Chemical Corp. (WLK), Quanta Services, (PWR), BorgWarner (BWA), Sempra Energy (SRE), Kellogg Company (K), XPO Logistics, (XPO), Wayfair (W), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Apache Corp. (APA), Huntington Ingalls Industries, (HII), IntercontinentalExchange (ICE), CommScope Holding Company, (COMM), Zoetis (ZTS), Vulcan Materials Company (VMC), Ferrari N.V. (RACE), Hyatt Hotels Corp (H), Xylem (XYL), Iron Mountain (IRM), Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL), Peloton Interactive (PTON), Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP), Papa John’s International, (PZZA) After the bell: American International Group, (AIG), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), Consolidated Edison (ED), Block, (SQ), Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated (RGA), Carvana Co. (CVNA), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Rocket Companies, (RKT), Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA), Cushman & Wakefield (CWK), Expedia, (EXPE), MasTec (MTZ), Motorola Solutions, (MSI), NCR Corporation (NCR), Live Nation Entertainment, (LYV), Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN), Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM), AMN Healthcare Services, (AMN), Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST), DoorDash, (DASH), Post Holdings, (POST), Trinseo S.A. (TSE), Regal Rexnord Corporation (RRX), Shopify (SHOP), Coinbase Global, (COIN), Matson, (MATX), GoDaddy (GDDY), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Fortinet (FTNT), Lyft, (LYFT), PC Connection, (CNXN), Atlassian (TEAM), Americold Realty Trust (COLD), Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO), Redfin Corporation (RDFN), Dropbox, (DBX) 8:30 a.m. ET: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Friday, May 5 Before the bell: CIGNA Corp. (CI), Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA), Plains GP Holdings L.P. (PAGP), Brookfield Business Partners L.P. (BBU), Enbridge, (ENB), Magna International (MGA), Johnson Controls, (JCI), CNH Industrial (CNHI), Global Partners LP (GLP), Dominion Energy, (D), EOG Resources, (EOG), Warner Bros. Discovery, (WBD), Fluor Corp. (FLR), Qurate Retail, (QRTEA), AES Corp. (AES), Owens & Minor, (OMI), Huntsman Corp. (HUN), Boise Cascade Corporation (BCC), Liberty SiriusXM Group (LSXMA), Ameren Corp. (AEE), Frontier Communications Parent, (FYBR), American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL), Evergy, (EVRG), EPAM Systems, (EPAM), Credicorp, Ltd (BAP), Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), CBOE Global Markets, (CBOE), Gray Television (GTN), AMC Entertainment Holdings, (AMC) 8:30 a.m. ET: Nonfarm Payrolls Looking back It was the biggest week of this earnings season for the Club as several of our mega-cap holdings and industry bellwethers reported results. The two biggest takeaways: Management teams remain cautiously optimistic despite all the uncertainty in the economy; and — barring a major surprise — investors have likely gotten too bearish on many sectors of the market. On the macroeconomic front, we received several key updates that continued to show an economic slowdown is underway. Investors are weighing this data against decent earnings results and trying to determine if a soft landing for the economy remains on the table or if things are about to deteriorate meaningfully as we work through the second quarter. We saw this dynamic play out when Club name Caterpillar (CAT) reported a fantastic quarter , only to see shares sell off on concerns that the first quarter marked the peak of the cycle. March new home sales on Tuesday came in better than expected. First-quarter GDP was reported to have increased less than expected, rising 1.1% versus a 2% estimated increase. Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 22 also came in below expectations, declining by 16,000 to 230,000 versus 245,000 expected. March pending home sales showed a surprising drop from February. The biggest report of the week dropped Friday in the form of the March personal spending report, which increased 0.3% monthly, in line with expectations. Included is the core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation which increased 4.6% on an annual basis, slightly above the 4.5% expected by Wall Street. However, it was still a tick down from the 4.7% rate of advance for the 12-month period ended in February. As of Friday, the U.S. dollar index is trading below 102. Gold is trading at around $2,000 per ounce. WTI crude prices are hovering in the the mid-$70s per barrel. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was about 3.4%. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
A robot prepares to pick up a tote containing product at the Amazon Robotics fulfillment center on April 12, 2019 in Orlando, Florida.
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The biggest week of this earnings season showed us that things aren’t as bad as many feared. Another barrage of results in the coming week will test that assumption.
