Global Courant
‘We will do whatever is necessary’ to win the war: Kremlin
A pedestrian walks past a New Year decoration stylised as the “Kremlin Star”, bearing a Z letter, a tactical insignia of Russian troops in Ukraine, in Moscow on January 02, 2023.
Natalia Kolesnikova | Afp | Getty Images
The Kremlin told CNBC Wednesday it will do “whatever is necessary” to win the war in Ukraine.
When asked specifically if it would look to exploit divisions that have emerged between Ukraine and its global allies recently — and particularly ahead of potential political shifts with elections in eastern Europe and the U.S. on the horizon — the Kremlin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said:
“We continue (the) SVO,” referring to the “special military operation” as Russia describes its invasion of Ukraine.
“We need to achieve our goals. To achieve this, we will do whatever is necessary,” he said in written comments to CNBC, translated by Google.
Ukraine is trying hard to keep its international backers close as diplomatic gaffes, war fatigue and elections threaten to upset its alliances and damage public support for its cause.
Recent awkward moments with its NATO allies, and most recently with close ally and neighbor Poland, have threatened to upset its international partners while opinion polls show support for continued military funding for Ukraine is declining.
There are fears that Russia is smelling blood as it watches the public’s attitude toward the war shifting, and could look to exploit weaknesses and fractures in Ukraine’s partnerships.
Analysts believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing a “waiting game” and hoping that Donald Trump, or at least a Republican administration, will enter the White House after elections next year. Republican opposition to continued and increasing funding for Ukraine has become more vocal in recent months.
— Holly Ellyatt
Second video emerges showing Russian naval commander alive
A television station run by Russia’s Defense Ministry on Wednesday published a video interview with Black Sea Fleet commander Viktor Sokolov, whose status is unknown after Ukraine claimed he had been killed in a strike on Russian naval base in Crimea.
The channel, Zvezda, posted the video on Telegram Wednesday, calling it an “exclusive.” Posting an excerpt from the interview and attributing the comments to Sokolov, it said:
“The Black Sea Fleet is successfully carrying out the tasks the command has set to us, this includes the surface and underwater forces, the sea aviation, the coastal troops. You know these reports which are almost constantly on TV telling about the heroic deeds of our marines.” The post was translated by NBC.
It is the second video the ministry has released now purportedly showing admiral Sokolov alive after Ukraine claimed on Monday that he was killed in a missile strike on the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Crimea last Friday.
It’s unclear from the clip when it was filmed — before or after Ukraine’s strike on the headquarters.
Ukraine said it was trying to clarify information on the attack last Friday, conceding on Tuesday that Sokolov’s death had not been confirmed.
— Holly Ellyatt
Video showing ‘dead’ Russian naval commander ‘alive’ puts Kyiv in a tricky position
The emergence of the video purportedly showing a Russian naval commander alive after Ukraine said he had died in a strike on Russia’s naval headquarters in Crimea is an awkward moment for Kyiv.
The video, released by Russia’s Ministry of Defense, appeared to directly contradict Ukraine’s claims on Monday that its strikes on the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol Friday had killed the commander, Admiral Viktor Sokolov, and 33 other naval officers, as well as injuring over 100 other personnel.
Still, we don’t know when the video was filmed or when the meeting took place. Questions have also been asked as to why Ukraine’s claims over Sokolov’s apparent death were not referenced in the meeting, given that it would have been a ripe opportunity for Russia to do so.
Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet Viktor Sokolov (Bottom L), who has been claimed to be killed in the September 22 strike on the Navy headquarters in the city of Sevastopol, appears on the screen at the meeting that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu holds with Ministry officials in Moscow, Russia on September 26, 2023.
Russian Defense Ministry | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Close followers of the war say the episode could reflect badly on Ukraine because it could cast doubts on other information it publishes or claims it makes in the war.
Sam Ramani, a geopolitical analyst and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, noted on X, formerly known as Twitter, that while many Ukrainian sources claimed that Sokolov was dead, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kirill Budanov had been more cautious in his analysis “and focused on injuries to other key personnel.”
It now looked “like Budanov’s cautious approach was correct,” Ramani said.
The Institute for the Study of War said in analysis Tuesday that “the situation remains unclear at this time” and that it was “unprepared at this time to make an assessment about the authenticity of the Russian MoD’s footage of Sokolov or about Sokolov’s status on Earth.”
Read more on the story here: Dead or alive? Mystery surrounds the fate of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet commander
— Holly Ellyatt
Russia believed to be sending new force into action in Ukraine
Since mid-September, Russia has highly likely committed elements of its new 25th Combined Arms Army (25 CAA) to action for the first time in Ukraine, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said Wednesday.
The formation started moving into Ukraine from late August 2023, the ministry said in an intelligence update on X, formerly known as Twitter.
A poster promoting contract army service that reads “Join your people,” on the side of the Garden Ring road, with a theater building adorned with the letter Z formed by a huge Russia’s patriotic black and orange Saint George’s ribbon — which has become a symbol of support for Russian military action in Ukraine — seen in the background, in central Moscow, on July 7, 2023.
Natalia Kolesnikova | Afp | Getty Images
U.K. defense officials noted that units from two of 25 CAA’s maneuver components — the 67th Motor Rifle Division and 164th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade — “are reported to be fighting on the front in a sector west of Severodonetsk and Kreminna,” along the border between the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
“Since the start of the invasion, Russia has only rarely maintained an uncommitted army-size grouping which could potentially form the basis of a major new offensive thrust,” it noted.
“With 25 CAA apparently being deployed piecemeal to reinforce the over-stretched line, a concerted new Russian offensive is less likely over the coming weeks.”
— Holly Ellyatt
Russia’s proof that naval commander is alive is questioned
Mystery is still swirling around the fate of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet commander after Ukraine said he had been killed in a strike on Russia’s naval headquarters, but a video was published Tuesday appearing to show Admiral Viktor Sokolov alive.
After Russia’s Defense Ministry published a video appearing to show Sokolov alive and attending a meeting of defense officials via video conference, Ukraine’s special operations forces admitted it had not confirmed Sokolov’s death in last Friday’s strike on the Russian naval base in Sevastopol, Crimea, and said it was “clarifying information.”
Defense and security analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News Tuesday that it’s still not clear whether the person in the Russian Defense Ministry meeting is Sokolov.
Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet Viktor Sokolov (left) appears on the screen at the meeting that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held with ministry officials in Moscow, Russia, on Sept. 26, 2023.
Russian Defense Ministry | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
“We’ve looked at the video, it’s not very clear and it jumps around quite a lot. We’ve located the person on the video who looks most like Sokolov, and it may be him, but it’s not a completely clear match,” Clarke said.
“It could be Sokolov, looking at previous photographs of him. On the other hand, there’s still no proof that this video is really current,” he said, adding that “there’s a lot of evidence that Sokolov was in the building that was hit on Friday by a couple of Storm Shadow missiles.”
“So it is possible that Sokolov lives. But I think the Russians would have to produce more convincing evidence than this if they want to be taken seriously on this particular issue.”
Viktor Sokolov attends a ceremony marking the 240th anniversary of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea, on May 13, 2023.
Alexey Pavlishak | Reuters
Clarke noted that it was “odd that producing a rather vague video and saying he’s here somewhere, and leaving it to news organisations like us to try to work out who it might be, is less than clear in the message they were trying to send.”
— Holly Ellyatt
Belarus again rules out entering the Ukraine war, saying it wants peace
Belarus again ruled out participating in the war in Ukraine alongside Russia, with its top diplomat insisting that a political and diplomatic solution is the only way to end the conflict.
Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleynik was asked by the Associated Press whether he sees a situation in which Belarus could take part in the war.
“My answer is no,” Aleynik said, adding that Russia’s longstanding ally Belarus has always supported peace in its neighboring country and will continue “to do everything in our power” to achieve it.
He told AP that no one knows how long the war will last, but “we all understand that there is no alternative to the political and diplomatic solution for this conflict.”
Aleynik noted that Minsk had held three rounds of negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations last year “and they began to develop some elements of a potential peace agreement.”
But he blamed Ukraine and other countries “indirectly involved in the conflict” for the failure of those negotiations, and said Belarus “will continue to make peace efforts.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko at The Naval Cathedral of Saint Nicholas on July 23, 2023.
Alexandr Demyanchuk | AFP | Getty Images
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is known as “Europe’s last dictator,” having ruled in Belarus for nearly three decades. He is a firm, if subservient, ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, having received political and financial support from Moscow over the years.
Nonetheless, Belarus has so far resisted actively entering the war alongside Russia, although it has provided logistical support and allowed Russian forces to launch their invasion on northern Ukraine from its territory. It has also allowed Russia to station tactical nuclear missiles in Belarus.
When asked whether he foresees a situation in which those weapons could be used, Aleynik told the AP that he didn’t see “such an option because it is an instrument of defense primarily.”
But if Belarus were invaded, “I will not exclude any instruments to be used to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country,” he said.
— Holly Ellyatt
Russia’s Medvedev visits troops near the frontline in Donetsk
Russian President Vladimir Putin and then-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow, Russia, February 23, 2018.
Mikhail Svetlov | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday that he had visited troops near the frontline in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, upon orders from President Vladimir Putin, according to AFP.
“On the instructions of the president, I visited a firing range near the contact line on the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic,” said Medvedev, who also formerly served as prime minister.
“The servicemen are demonstrating excellent combat qualities of will, firmness and a general attitude to victory,” Medvedev, who now serves as deputy chairman of the Kremlin’s Security Council, said in a video posted on social media.
He added that “over 325,000 people” had been recruited into the Russian Armed Forces since the start of the year — up from the figure of 280,000 he gave at the start of the month.
CNBC was unable to independently verify these numbers.
— Karen Gilchrist
Ukraine says it has not confirmed the death of Black Sea commander Sokolov
Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet Viktor Sokolov (left) appears on the screen at the meeting that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held with ministry officials in Moscow, Russia, on Sept. 26, 2023.
Russian Defense Ministry | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces said in a statement Tuesday that they had not confirmed the death of the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Viktor Sokolov.
Ukraine previously said Monday that Sokolov and 33 other naval officers had been killed in a strike on the naval base in Sevastopol, in Russian-occupied Crimea, on Friday.
But Russian news agency Tass showed a video on its news website in which Sokolov was seen taking part in a video conference with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and other officials.
CNBC was unable to independently verify when the footage, which was distributed by Russia’s defense ministry, was filmed.
— Karen Gilchrist
Russia’s defense minister ramps up weapons supply
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu smiles while visiting the Army 2023 Exhibition on August 14, 2023 in Kubinka, Russia.
Contributor | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced Tuesday plans to increase the supply of modern weapons to the Russian army, according to comments reported by Russian news agency Interfax.
“We continue to increase the combat power of the armed forces, including through the supply of modern weapons and improving the training of troops, taking into account the experience of a special military operation,” Shoigu reportedly said at the board of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Shoigu said the plans were designed to be implemented by 2025.
Russian forces in the Southern Military District will receive 5,500 units of modern military equipment this year, he said, “and the commissioning of more than five hundred infrastructure facilities will be completed,” he said without giving further details.
He also said that since the beginning of the year, the number of officers in the district has increased by 11,000 people, and contract military personnel by 30,000 people. Shoigu said combat training and training grounds were being modernized.
In addition, Shoigu said that new formations of the Airborne Forces are being created in Russia and their strike capabilities are being increased.
“We continue to equip the Airborne Forces with the latest weapons. Since the beginning of the year, formations and military units have received more than two thousand pieces of equipment and five and a half thousand sets of landing equipment and parachute systems.”
Shoigu said that the plans would allow the Airborne Forces to increase their combat potential by 1.3 times by the end of the year, while its firepower would increase by 20%.
— Holly Ellyatt
Why targeting Russia’s prized Black Sea Fleet matters to Ukraine
In recent days, Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Russia’s Black Sea Fleet that’s based in Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea, with its attack on the naval base last Friday causing significant damage to the fleet’s headquarters.
The U.K.’s Ministry of Defence noted in an intelligence update Tuesday that attacks in recent days “have been more damaging and more coordinated than thus far in the war.”
Posting on X, formerly known as Twitter, the U.K. said that while the “physical damage to the Black Sea Fleet is almost certainly severe but localised” it said “the fleet almost certainly remains capable of fulfilling its core wartime missions of cruise missile strikes and local security patrols.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the destroyer Vice-Admiral Kulakov at the Naval Base of Black Sea Fleet on Sept. 23, 2014, in Novorossiysk, Russia.
Sasha Mordovets | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Nonetheless, the ministry noted that the Russian navy’s “ability to continue wider regional security patrols and enforce its de facto blockade of Ukrainian ports will be diminished.”
“It also likely has a degraded ability to defend its assets in port and to conduct routine maintenance,” it said.
“A dynamic, deep strike battle is underway in the Black Sea. This is likely forcing Russia into a reactive posture whilst demonstrating that Ukraine’s military can undermine the Kremlin’s symbolic and strategic power projection from its warm water port in occupied Sevastopol,” the ministry said.
— Holly Ellyatt
Black Sea Fleet commander allegedly killed by Ukraine seen in video
Viktor Sokolov attends a ceremony marking the 240th anniversary of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea, on May 13, 2023.
Alexey Pavlishak | Reuters
The commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, who Ukraine claimed it had killed in a missile strike on the Russian naval headquarters in Crimea, has been seen attending a video conference with Russian defense officials Tuesday.
Ukraine said Monday that Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and 33 other naval officers had been killed in its strike on the naval base in Sevastopol, in Russian-occupied Crimea.
Russian news agency Tass showed the video on its news website, in which Sokolov is seen taking part in a video conference with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and officials. It’s uncertain when the footage, which was distributed by the defense ministry, was filmed.
At the time of the attack last Friday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said the historical building of the Black Sea Fleet headquarters had been damaged and said one serviceman was missing. It said Russian air defenses shot down five missiles.
Earlier, the Kremlin said it had no comment on Ukraine’s claim that Sokolov had been killed in the attack.
— Holly Ellyatt
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