Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump arrives to address the Pray Vote Stand Summit at the Omni Shoreham Hotel on September 15, 2023 in Washington, DC.
Anna Geldmaker | Getty Images
Three-quarters of voters say they are concerned about President Joe Biden’s age and mental condition, while nearly two-thirds are concerned about the many lawsuits facing former President Donald Trump, according to a new national NBC News poll, which found casts a gloomy shadow over the upcoming 2024 presidential elections.
The poll also shows Trump expanding his national lead in the Republican presidential nomination contest to more than 40 points over his nearest competition, and Biden and Trump deadlocked in a hypothetical rematch more than a year before the general election.
But also notable in the poll are the warning signs for Biden growing older than his years — including all-time high disapproval of his job performance, fewer than four in 10 voters approving of his handling of the economy and lagging interest in the election among the voters. important parts of the Democratic base.
“This survey is a surprising flashing red light for an incumbent,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt and his team at Hart Research Associates.
But Trump and the Republicans have their own challenges — such as the Republican front-runner’s overall unpopularity with the general electorate, and the way Trump is galvanizing political opposition, including those who have reservations about Biden.
“Yes, the numbers for Biden are not where he needs them to be,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster. “But the lens for most voters is still through Donald Trump first.”
The NBC News poll – conducted from September 15 to 19 – comes one month after the final charge of Trump in Fulton County, Georgia, days before Wednesday’s Republican presidential debate (which Trump will not attend), and as Biden faces only nominal opposition for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Still, according to the poll, a total of 74% of registered voters say they have strong concerns (59%) or moderate concerns (15%) that Biden, at age 80, does not have the necessary mental and physical health to be president. a second term.
According to the poll, 62% are very concerned (52%) or moderately concerned (10%) about Trump facing several criminal and civil lawsuits over alleged misconduct, including his attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
Another 60% have strong concerns (45%) or moderate concerns (15%) about Biden’s possible awareness or involvement in his son Hunter’s business dealings, including alleged financial misconduct and corruption.
And 47% are very concerned (34%) or moderately concerned (13%) that Trump, at age 77, does not have the necessary mental and physical health to run for president for a second term.
“I know he’s 80. I know 80 year olds are perfectly capable. I’m more concerned about Biden’s physical health. He seems a little weak and this job is taking its toll,” said Mary Lyon, 53, a Democrat. from Tucson, Arizona.
Kevin Chester, an Arizona Republican who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, said he will not vote for Trump in 2024 if he is the Republican nominee because “nothing will get done. He will challenge the past. It will be tit for tat.”
“I would vote for a third party in protest if it was Trump versus Biden,” Chester added.
Despite facing several charges, he had his mugshot released in August and after skipping the first Republican debate, Trump now leads the Republican presidential race by more than 40 points, according to the poll.
He is the top choice of 59% of national Republican primary voters, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has support from 16% – followed by former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley with 7% and former Vice President Mike Pence and former Governor of New Jersey. Chris Christie for 4% each.
In June NBC News pollTrump was ahead of DeSantis by 29 points, 51% to 22%.
The former president’s gains have come from men, seniors and moderate Republican primary voters.
At the same time, the poll shows that the share of Republican Party primary voters who believe Trump should remain the leader of the Republican Party has increased, from 49% in June to 58% now.
A combined 86% of Republican primary voters say they are very satisfied (42%) or somewhat satisfied (44%) with the choice of Republican candidates for president.
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during the 46th Annual Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute Gala at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, DC, on September 21, 2023.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
Meanwhile, Biden’s approval rating among registered voters stands at 41% who approve and 56% who disapprove — the highest disapproval rate during his presidency.
Deeper within these numbers, Biden is among voters between the ages of 18 and 34 (46% of whom approve of his job performance), all women (46%), Latinos (43%), and independents (36%).
Additionally, the NBC News poll shows that 37% of voters approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, and 41% approve of his handling of foreign policy.
Only 28% of all voters say they are satisfied with the state of the economy (compared to 48% who said this at the start of Biden’s presidency in April 2021), although 55% say they are satisfied with their own financial situation. Still, that 55% figure equals a record low on this 1994 poll question.
And on top of all these numbers, nearly six in 10 Democratic primary voters — 59% — say they want a Democratic candidate to challenge Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2024, even if no major challenger has emerged within the party.
Looking ahead to the 2024 general election, the NBC News poll found Biden and Trump locked in a hypothetical battle among registered voters, 46% to 46%.
In June, Biden had a four-point lead over Trump, 49% to 45%.
According to the new poll, Biden is ahead of Trump among black voters (76% to 14%), voters between the ages of 18 and 34 (57% to 34%), whites with a college degree (56% to 34%), Latinos ( 51% to 39%) and women (51% to 41%).
Trump leads among rural voters (67% to 31%), men (51% to 40%), white voters (51% to 41%) and whites without a college degree (63% to 32%).
Among independents, Biden gets 42%, while Trump gets 35%.
Notably, Biden leads Trump by 18 points among those who “somewhat disapprove” of the president’s job performance (49% to 31%). And nearly 1 in 5 registered voters who say they are concerned about Biden’s age are still voting for him over Trump.
In other hypothetical matchups, Biden has a 1-point lead over DeSantis, 46% to 45%, well within the poll’s margin of error.
After a strong performance in the first Republican presidential debate, candidate Nikki Haley will launch the swing in South Carolina on August 28 and hold a town hall with Rep. Ralph Norman and South Carolina Rep. Mike Neese in Indian Land, Lancaster County, South Carolina, United States . , 2023.
Peter Zay | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
And the president trails Haley by 5 points, 46% to 41%. Haley is outperforming Trump and DeSantis among independent and college-educated voters, even though nearly 30% of all voters say they don’t know her.
“She serves as the functional generic Republican candidate,” McInturff, the Republican pollster, said of Haley.
In a field with multiple candidates, including third parties, Trump gets 39% of registered voters, Biden gets 36%, an unnamed Libertarian Party candidate gets 5%, an unnamed No Labels candidate gets 5% and an unnamed Green Party candidate gets 4%.
And 67% of all voters say they have a high interest in the 2024 election – which equates to a 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale – which is lower than the same time before the 2020 election (when 72% had high marks ) interest rate), but higher than this point in the 2016 cycle (64%). Voter turnout in 2020 was significantly higher than in 2016.
A larger share of Republican voters (75%) than Democratic voters (68%) are very interested in the upcoming election, while significant parts of the Democratic base – younger voters, black voters and Latino voters – are less interested than at the same time during previous election cycles.
Biden’s net favorability rating (39% positive, 49% negative) is higher than Trump’s (35% positive, 54% negative) and Vice President Kamala Harris’s (31% positive, 51% negative).
In the hypothetical Biden-Trump matchup, a majority of Biden voters (58%) say their vote is more against Trump than for Biden, while a majority of Trump voters (57%) say their vote is more for Trump is then against Biden.
Voting preferences for next year’s congressional elections are essentially the same: 46% of voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 45% who prefer Republicans in charge – virtually unchanged from June.
And when asked about the House of Representatives’ Republican impeachment inquiry into Biden, a majority of voters — 56% — oppose Congress holding impeachment hearings to remove Biden from office, while 39% support the hearings.
The national NBC News poll was conducted Sept. 15-19 among 1,000 registered voters — 848 of them by cell phone — and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The margin of error for the 321 Republican primaries in the survey is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.