The recent escalation of tensions between Iran and Pakistan has cast a dark cloud over the already fragile relationship between the two neighbours. The unprovoked Iranian missile strikes on Pakistani soil on 16th January triggered a sharp diplomatic rebuke from Islamabad, including the suspension of all high-level meetings on 17th January followed by befitting counter strikes on 18th January in Iran by the armed forces of Pakistan. This latest episode sits squarely within the context of Iran’s recent assertive posture.
Decoding Iran’s recent belligerence involves considering multiple factors. Firstly, domestic unrest in Sistan and Baluchistan province, home to a significant Baluch population with grievances against the Iranian government, serves as a pretext for Tehran’s actions. By framing cross-border attacks as targeting “terrorists,” Iran aims to suppress internal dissent. Secondly, Iran’s regional ambitions, supported by its nuclear program and ties with terrorist groups, drive an assertive foreign policy to counter American and Israeli dominance in the Middle East. This involves projecting strength in Iraq and Syria through military means as evident by the recent airstrikes. However, Iran’s miscalculation lies in overestimating its leverage and underestimating Pakistan’s resolve. Islamabad’s strong condemnation of the airspace violation by counter airstrikes on terrorist hideouts in Siestan-o-Baluchestan province of Iran and suspension of official engagements, signals its unwillingness to tolerate such blatant aggression on its soil. Moreover, Pakistan’s robust military and nuclear deterrence capability ensures that it will not back down in the face of Iranian pressure. This assertiveness extends beyond Pakistan, as demonstrated by Iranian airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against Kurdish groups linked to Israel.
The escalating tension holds numerous strategic implications. First, the peace along the Pakistan-Iran border is at risk, with potential for cross-border skirmishes and a full-blown conflict. Second, regional stability is in jeopardy, as tensions may spill over, destabilizing other nations in the volatile Middle East. Third, diplomatic engagement between Pakistan and Iran appears unlikely, which can result in revocation of diplomatic ties between the two, further isolating Iran in the global arena. Moreover, an escalated conflict could destabilize Afghanistan’s fragile security situation, potentially drawing a regional proxy war with unpredictable consequences.
Examining India’s role in the current geopolitical landscape is also essential, given its history of maneuvering between neighboring countries. Despite New Delhi’s official statement: “This is a matter between Iran and Pakistan. Insofar as India is concerned, we have an uncompromising position of zero tolerance towards terrorism. We understand actions that countries take in their self defense” over recent developments, doubts linger about its true intentions, considering its track record of playing one neighbor against another. The dynamics between Iran and India add complexity to the situation. While not formal allies, they share a common interest in balancing against Pakistan’s military power. India’s historical support for Baloch separatist groups operating within Pakistan has strained relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. In order to scrutinize the extent of India’s involvement in the current crisis, it is crucial to consider the recent visit of Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar to Iran, which appears to be a perfect pretext to strengthen this observation. The timing and nature of Jaishankar’s visit raise eyebrows, as it coincides with the escalating tensions between Iran and Pakistan. This strategic move could be interpreted as an attempt by India to exploit the existing Iran-Pakistan rift for its own strategic gain. The fact that the visit aligns with the unfolding events suggests a coordinated effort, adding credence to the speculation that India is actively influencing Iran’s actions in the region. The extent of India’s involvement in the current crisis deserves scrutiny. Any attempt to exploit the Iran-Pakistan rift for its own strategic gain is a dangerous and short-sighted gamble.
Looking ahead, the immediate priority lies in de-escalating the situation and preventing further bloodshed. International stakeholders, particularly the United Nations and regional powers like Turkey and China, can play a critical role in facilitating dialogue and mediation efforts. The recent tensions between Iran and Pakistan are not solely driven by immediate security concerns but are symptomatic of broader strategic shifts and regional rivalries. While the immediate steps must focus on de-escalation and dialogue, the long-term path towards stability lies in addressing the underlying causes of the conflict and fostering regional cooperation. Only then can the flames of discord be extinguished and pave the way for a more peaceful and prosperous future for both Iran and Pakistan.
