International Courant
Robert F Kennedy Jr, scion of america’ most well-known political dynasty, will announce his working mate on Tuesday as he contests the 2024 US presidential election as an unbiased candidate.
The chances are stacked in opposition to him, as no third-party candidate has gained the presidency in additional than a century and a half.
However the longtime environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine activist has made waves within the media due to his sturdy identify recognition: his uncle was former President John F Kennedy, and his father was Robert F Kennedy, a former US legal professional common and senator. .
He has sidelined the Democratic Celebration after failing to win the presidential nomination and is tapping into each far-left and far-right components in his long-term bid to win the White Home.
His marketing campaign seems to be resonating amongst so-called double haters, who concern a rematch between incumbent Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who regardless of his authorized troubles is the frontrunner to win the Republican Celebration nomination.
Current polls point out that whereas he may take away voters from both candidate, it’s Biden he may damage most.
The US Home of Representatives committee that investigated the January 6, 2021 assault on the US Capitol by Trump supporters exhibits footage of a 2020 presidential election debate between Trump, the left and Biden. The 2 males are set for a rematch in November (File: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)
Amid a local weather of political disillusionment, Kennedy has projected himself as a political outsider, denouncing “company kleptocracy” whereas touting his environmental credentials.
A longtime vaccine skeptic, he has been accused of spreading misinformation concerning the COVID-19 vaccine on various media, reminiscent of conservative host Joe Rogan’s widespread podcast. Rogan has additionally been accused of spreading falsehoods about COVID-19 vaccines on The Joe Rogan Expertise.
Whereas Kennedy’s opponents have branded him a conspiracy theorist, his supporters hail him as a truth-teller.
So who is that this political freewheeler? The place does he come from? What does he assume, and does he actually have an opportunity of successful?
What’s Kennedy’s background?
Kennedy’s household identify evokes each privilege and tragedy. He was simply 9 years previous when President John F Kennedy was shot useless in November 1963. His father, Robert, suffered an identical destiny when he launched his personal presidential bid 5 years later.
Senator Robert F. Kennedy addresses a crowd of supporters in Los Angeles on June 5, 1968, after successful the California major. Moments later he was fatally shot (Dick Strobel/AP Photograph)
Grief-stricken, RFK Jr turned to heroin to “fill an empty area inside me,” ultimately getting clear after an arrest for possession. His second spouse, Mary, mom of 4 of his six kids, additionally battled habit and died by suicide. He’s now married to Cheryl Hines, recognized for her function within the sitcom Curb Your Enthusiasm.
Kennedy suffers from a speech obstacle referred to as spasmodic dysphonia, which causes the muscle tissue within the larynx to spasm, though the situation doesn’t seem to have affected his appearances on exhibits by the likes of Rogan and conservative Canadian best-selling writer Jordan Peterson. shoot-from-the-hip type performs nicely.
His controversial views have led to his family disowning him. “Bobby could have the identical identify as our father, however he doesn’t share the identical values, imaginative and prescient or judgment,” his siblings mentioned in a press release on X. “We condemn his candidacy and imagine it’s harmful to our nation. ”
Bobby could have the identical identify as our father, however he doesn’t share the identical values, imaginative and prescient or judgment. At this time’s announcement could be very saddening for us. We denounce his candidacy and imagine that that is harmful for our nation. @roryekennedy @joekendy @KKT_Kennedy pic.twitter.com/WJfGwSxN1z
— Kerry Kennedy (@KerryKennedyRFK) October 9, 2023
What does he stand for?
Not one to stay to a script, Kennedy has a blended bag of usually contradictory views that make him tough to pigeonhole.
Take the setting. The previous environmental lawyer was as soon as named a “Hero of the Planet” by Time journal and is thought for his campaigns to scrub up the nation’s waterways, scale back using poisonous pesticides and promote renewable power sources. His anyway to name to motion for “freedom and free markets” as an answer to local weather change has raised fears that he would let trade set the tempo for lowering fossil gasoline use.
He has additionally threatened to withdraw Biden’s signature local weather laws, which pushes for a transition to a inexperienced economic system.
His libertarian streak emerged through the COVID-19 pandemic when he accused the US authorities’s then-chief medical adviser, Anthony Fauci, of “a historic coup in opposition to Western democracy”. He additionally claimed that the virus was designed to assault white and black folks and spare Chinese language folks and Ashkenazi Jews.
His views on the Israeli-Palestinian battle are usually contradictory. Kennedy endorsed Roger Waters final 12 months amid large outrage over a efficiency wherein the Pink Floyd co-founder donned Nazi garb and projected the emblem of an Israeli weapons firm onto a large inflated pig. But months later the politician stays steadfast defended Israel’s all-out struggle on Gaza, which has killed greater than 32,000 folks and introduced the besieged enclave to the brink of famine.
Isolationist by nature, he opposes assist to Ukraine, blaming the US and NATO for making a “proxy struggle” with Russia. In a current one interviewhe mentioned the billions in funding for the war-torn nation could possibly be used for “therapeutic farms” for folks gripped by habit and melancholy, as he highlighted the fentanyl disaster.
“His job can be to bridge the big hole between RFK Jr, the very liberal, progressive environmentalist, and the anti-vaccine crusader,” mentioned Steffen Schmidt, professor emeritus within the Division of Political Science at Iowa State College.
On immigration, RFK Jr opposes Trump’s plan to construct a wall on the US border with Mexico. He was additionally important of Biden’s dealing with of the border disaster. He has pledged to safe the border utilizing trendy know-how, reminiscent of cameras and detectors, to cease the entry of undocumented immigrants. He helps increasing authorized immigration to the US.
Will voters purchase his blended messages?
That’s tough to foretell. Based on a current Reuters/Ipsos ballot, six in ten respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the two-party system and wished a 3rd alternative.
Each Democrats and Republicans see him as a menace. The previous are notably involved, fearing that the enchantment of his star identify may siphon votes away from Biden.
Based on a number of polls revealed in February and March, 40 p.c of People have a positive opinion of RFK Jr. His approval rankings have fallen since December, when Gallup confirmed that 52 p.c of People preferred him — greater than these of Trump or Biden.
“RFK Jr appeals to Republican right-wingers who’re into conspiracy theories, however he additionally considerably appeals to those that are actually far left,” says Melissa Smith, writer of the 2022 guide Third Events, Outsiders, and Renegades: Trendy Challenges. to the two-party system in presidential elections. “It is form of just like the far proper and the far left can wrap themselves round a candidate like this.”
Kennedy usually cites the help of Gen Z, the technology born between 1997 and 2012. His coverage concepts don’t look like aimed on the youth vote. For instance, he has referred to as for a federal ban on 15-week abortions, blaming video video games and the rising use of antidepressants for gun violence. However his outspoken statements about financial inequality resonate with younger folks combating low wages and excessive housing prices.
Might he actually make an affect?
Whereas Republicans and Democrats mechanically enter presidential elections, exterior candidates should spend hundreds of thousands accumulating signatures from registered voters and hiring legal professionals to struggle authorized challenges from institution events over advanced poll entry guidelines that change from state to state .
“The electoral system was created by the 2 main events to forestall third-party candidates from successful,” Schmidt mentioned.
To this point, Kennedy has certified for the poll in just one state, Utah. He has filed paperwork to kind his personal We the Individuals Celebration in California, Delaware, Hawaii, Mississippi and North Carolina and is within the means of beginning the Texas Impartial Celebration within the Lone Star State.
His marketing campaign group informed the New York Instances that it anticipated these measures would scale back the variety of signatures he wants in all 50 states by 330,000.
Even when he makes it to the election, analysts assume his probabilities of success are slim. Many cited the case of Ross Perot, the rich Texan who emerged because the frontrunner within the 1992 battle in opposition to Invoice Clinton and George HW Bush. He fell in need of expectations, receiving solely a fifth of the votes and failing to win a single electoral vote. To win, a presidential candidate wants 270 electoral votes.
Former presidential candidate Ross Perot addresses the 1996 California conference of the Reform Celebration, the political occasion he based (Reed Saxon/AP Photograph)
Nonetheless, Kennedy may make a distinction within the election. The ballot common, tracked by US election information web site RealClearPolitics, confirmed that whereas Trump leads Biden nationally by 2 proportion factors in a two-candidate race, that hole widens greater than 4 factors if Kennedy can be within the race.
In key battleground states reminiscent of Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump’s lead over Biden is rising when Kennedy and different candidates are taken into consideration.
‘Do I believe he’ll win? Completely not. Do I believe he may steal a number of votes? Sure. However will he actually affect the elections? If historical past could be trusted, the reply is not any,” Smith mentioned.
Some other exterior bets?
Kennedy isn’t the one third-party candidate making a well-financed and credible bid for the presidency. No Labels, a centrist group that has not but named a candidate, has certified in 14 states thus far. And Cornel West, an African-American thinker and left-wing activist, launched his personal bid after breaking with the Inexperienced Celebration.
However in the long run, Kennedy has one thing that the others do not have. No matter his insurance policies, his ties to the closest factor the US has ever needed to a royal household may nonetheless work to his benefit.
Who’s election disruptor Robert F Kennedy Jr? | US elections 2024
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